The Denver MLS trends data for September 2020 is out. Comparing year over year (September 2019 to September 2020) is better than comparing the previous month, because we have defined seasonality trends.
Denver MLS Market Stats
Listing Count (inventory)
- Down 43% from this time last year
- Down 4% from last month
- Normally, we’d expect to see an increase in inventory in the fall, after the busy summer
New Listings in September
- Good performance, up 7% from Sept ‘19
- Not enough to keep pace with red hot demand
- Does seem to suggest that some sellers that were reluctant to list, perhaps due to COVID, are now coming to market
- Number of new listings in Sept ’20 was down a little from Aug ’20, but that would be normal seasonality
- STRONG showing traffic this year vs. last year in both Denver and Colorado Springs
Under Contract Count
- Very strong, +27% from last year
- Down -10% from Aug ’20 which is about normal seasonality
- We can anticipate strong closing volume in October, and we’re set up well for November, too
- +17% from this time last year
- It’s strong in most major US metros, but we’re doing even better than that lofty average
- -11% from Aug ’20, about normal seasonality
- +12% from last year, about the same as last month
- This is a distortion of mix which we have discussed a lot – we are not selling many small, cheap homes, but we are selling a lot of big, pricy houses
- Don’t be surprised if we see price declines in spring ’21 when this reverses
Days on Market
- Down about 30% from last year
Normally we’d see a slow down for a presidential election, but there sure is not evidence of that this time around.
Source: The above executive summary is from Lon Welsh of Your Castle Real Estate.
Denver Housing Trends September 2020
Rezoning to Allow ADUs in Certain Denver Neighborhoods
A recent article indicates that council members are starting to push for rezoning individual neighborhoods that want Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) starting with Chaffee Park. Sloan’s Lake and East Colfax are next on the list.
In summary, it does not seem they will rezone the entire city for ADUs. However, any individual can petition for rezoning of their lot if they want an ADU for a $1000 fee and additional costs that the city may charge. Most of these petitions are being approved.
Update on Forbearance and Foreclosures
Below is a chart from the Wall Street Journal this morning. Of all of the people that took a forbearance, 4% have had their payment holiday expire and could not re-start payments and are now actively delinquent.
This supports our hypothesis that this would not lead to a material number of short sales and foreclosures. At least in Colorado, most of the people in that 4% bucket will have a lot of equity and should be able to sell their home without distress.