Are We in a Bubble? Using Historic Trends to Predict the Future with Lon Welsh
We sat down with Lon Welsh to answer our most frequently asked question: Are we in a bubble? Lon put together an array of charts and graphs containing 50 years’ worth of data to answer that question for our audience. Read the executive summary and look through the charts to see Lon’s in-depth analysis.

We sat down with Lon Welsh to answer our most frequently asked question: Is Denver in a bubble?  Lon put together an array of charts and graphs containing 50 years’ worth of data that show the answer to that question is no.  

While prices are rising, they are in line with historic trends and are keeping pace with the increase in per capita income.  His projections for the Denver metro area over the next five years show that affordability will likely decrease but not catastrophically so.  Rents will keep rising, which means now is a great time for investors to buy a home and lock in their mortgage rate.  The competitive market makes it hard—if not impossible—to find the perfect deal, but that shouldn’t deter buyers.  Lon’s advice is to find a property with a little cashflow, keep some in reserves, and you’ll be able to ride the wave and let time take care of the rest.

Look through the charts below to see Lon’s in-depth analysis.  And if you have any questions or want help finding your next investment property, reach out to us. You can schedule a free real estate investment consultation with the link at the bottom of this post.

Executive Summary: Are we in a bubble? Will there be a crash? What will happen to home prices?

  • Despite the media hype, we are not in a bubble.
    • Per capita income in Denver has grown at a strong pace.
    • This enables buyers to afford higher real estate prices.
  • With realistic assumptions, prices are not likely to decline in the next five years.
  • Mortgage rates likely will rise, and that will not force down prices. Historically, it should not impact the number of transactions either.
  • Demographics, affordability, and construction prices will conspire to make the next 5 to 10 years very attractive to landlords.

Historical Context of Denver Metro Area

Home Prices

Historic Home Prices Denver

Mortgage Rates

Historic mortgage rates Denver

Mortgage Payment Relative to Income

Denver mortgage payment relative to income

Future Projections

Denver real estate future projections

Future Projection – Mortgage Payment Relative to Income

Denver future projection mortgage payment relative to income

How Sales Mix Impacts Average Price

how housing sales mix impacts average price home Denver
home size trends Denver mega homes

Ascent of the Renters

ascent of the renters Denver

Home Sales Correlation with Mortgage Rates

Home Sales Correlation with Mortgage Rates Denver
Analyze Before You Buy
Start Evaluating Properties Today with Our Free Toolkit
In a rapidly changing market, having the tools you need to help you analyze the data is critical. Know what the numbers will look like ahead of time so you don't buy a bad deal. Our toolkit is designed to help you thoroughly analyze any kind of deal so you can invest with confidence.
Start analyzing your Colorado investment properties today
Rental Property Spreadsheet • House Hacking Spreadsheet BRRRR Calculator Spreadsheet • Fix and Flip Deal Analyzer Investing Maps • Rehab Pricing Estimator
Start analyzing your Colorado investment properties today
Rental Property Spreadsheet • House Hacking Spreadsheet BRRRR Calculator Spreadsheet • Fix and Flip Deal Analyzer Investing Maps • Rehab Pricing Estimator
Authors
Chris Lopez
Chris Lopez is a Denver area real estate entrepreneur and investor, as well as the host of Bigger Pockets’ House Hackerz and the Denver Real Estate Investing Podcast.
Similar Post You Might Also Like
Podcasts - Denver
How to Cash Flow through House Hacking in 2024
Discover the top cash flowing strategies for house hackers in Denver with our 2024 Guide to House Hacking!
Denver
Real Estate Development from Concept to Reality | Deal Analysis
Real estate developer, Adam Fenton, joins us for an in-depth deal analysis of Narrate’s current development project, covering key aspects
Sign Up For Our Newsletter
What do you want to learn today?

All registrants get the recording sent to them automatically.