The Denver MLS trends data for July 2021 is out. Comparing year over year (July 2020 to July 2021) is better than comparing the previous month, because we have defined seasonality trends.
We are still seeing a seller’s market in Denver but not as extreme. A balanced market in Denver is considered to be an inventory of 24,000 to 30,000 homes. July 2021 showed only 4,000 homes. Active inventory was 30% higher in July compared to June which sounds encouraging for buyers but still 37% lower than July 2020. Days on market came in at 9.
The positive news for landlords is that we’re starting to see rents increase and rental vacancy decrease. We reviewed this data during one of our Drinks and Deep Dives. Check out the Denver Vacancy Rates and Rental Trends blog post for the details.
- Listen to the podcast “#305: Denver Real Estate MLS Market Stats – July 2021” on the Denver Real Estate Investing Podcast
- Watch the YouTube video (at the bottom).
- Read the blog post. Note, the blog is an executive summary. Get the in-depth breakdown from the podcast or video.
July 2021 Denver Market Stats with Ideas and Observations
- 4,050 active listings at the end of July
- Up 30% from end of June
- Normal seasonality – we’d expect an increase, but not that large. This is encouraging.
- However, we’re still down 37% from the inventory at end of July 2020.
- 24,000 homes would be 4 MOI (months of inventory) – the low end of a balanced market – so it’s still in the favor of the seller… but it’s not as lopsided as it was in 1Q 2Q of this year.
- 5,800 closings
- Down 12% from June 2021. That’s MORE of a drop than the historical seasonal trend
- May and July are usually the highest number of unit sales, and June is just behind those peak months
- July 2021 was 21% below July 2020 (July 2020 was still seeing a rebound from the April/May 2020 COVID shutdown)
- $625,000 average price
- $700,000 for homes (ouch!) and $440,000 for condos
- Where’s the love for the first time buyer?
- Prices were down 2% from June 2020 and +16% from July 2020.
- I do expect this insane level of price increases to slow down later in 3Q and in 4Q. It already is. For example, the June 2020 / June 2021 appreciation was near 25%.
- It’s possible we’ll see modest price declines near end of year (as we’ve discussed all year)
Days On Market
- 9 DOM days on market
- Down -10% from June 2020 and down 64% from July 2020
- I bet this is bottom dead center for DOM and it’ll start to gently increase from here
- Historical seasonality – DOM increases in late summer and fall.
- Usually that makes it a bit more favorable for the buyers in late summer / fall than it is in the spring.
Stories From the Market
- I’m hearing fewer homes are getting multiple offers… and when they get multiple offers, they are getting 2-4 offers, not 10.
- And the offers are not generally as over the ask price as they were in mid-Spring.
- The average home is selling around 3% over ask price, not 30%
- Finally some good news on prices
- 6,050 in July 2021 vs 6,725 UC in July 2020. Off -10%!
- July 2021 vs June 2021 off 5%
- Further support that the market is slowing down!
Source: The above executive summary is from Lon Welsh of Your Castle Real Estate.
Denver Housing Trends July 2021
Showing per active listing trends for Denver
Here are the showing trends for July for Denver. The year-long trend for fewer showings / active listing continued as expected.
- Showing traffic is about on par with last year, and slightly above the average 2017-2019
- Showing traffic has been on a downward trend from absurdly high levels in February 2021 – now it’s closer to “normal”
- That should be a leading indicator that the market is continuing to slow down (a little)
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